Andy Rowell – Page 22 – Church Leadership Conversations

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PDF: Download How should churches respond to coronavirus

1. Most important is to be caring for the dying, sick, hungry, unemployed, lonely, fearful, and children.
2. And also provide or curate programming online including worship services. And eventually provide safe physically-distanced options.

@mentionsThe above is my general advice. Now I also see your whole thread. Yes, care for the *outsider* is crucial. Yes, also we take care not to spread the virus in nursing homes or prisons; nor by gathering groups of vulnerable without masks and have them sing, which is a big spreader.

@mentionsI would also add that Christians should be advocating for the poor @RevDrBarber the prisoner @ScottHech for nursing homes @maddow the refugee @roamingwab and for aid for the developing world @matthew_loftus @bertrand_blair and Puerto Rico @CarlosHappyNPO

@mentionsSee also:

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Two threads:

March 31 thread

First tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1245007223715024896

Last tweet:

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1245048281685606400

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1245007223715024896.html

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Download Critique of IHME model March 31

Second thread:

April 10 First tweet of thread:

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1248631977667780609

April 17 Last tweet of thread:

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1251245875247996929

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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1251245875247996929.html

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Download Critique of IHME modeling

This will be more jumbled below thread 1:

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington has a model.

It assumes stay-at-home orders in every state in the next week.

Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 monthsAssuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United Sta…http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

You can look up each state:

IHME | COVID-19 ProjectionsExplore hospital bed use, need for intensive care beds, and ventilator use due to COVID-19 based on projected deathshttps://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Summary:

COVID-19 estimation updatesLearn about the latest changes to our projections model.http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

This model predicts the maximum deaths per day.
Florida: 136 on May 3.
Minnesota: 49 on Apr 19.
South Carolina: 30 on Apr 26.
We'll see.

Context:

I agree with this Carl T. Bergstrom thread that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington model is too optimistic. It assumes social distancing is practiced and it is flawed by being based on fatalities so far.

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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington people are trying to get Florida's governor to order social distancing.

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This will be more jumbled below thread 2:

I have not seen any expert who thinks the IHME projection modeling is excellent. It is based on reported covid deaths and it is regularly redone to fit curves in other countries. It was just invented in March to help the state of WA. It is an estimate based on Wuhan and Italy.

But there is no other public updated national model. So, it is useful to give the public some idea since tens of thousands is hard to picture. But it fluctuates based on reported deaths. It does not take into account poor testing.
See threads below to learn more.

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Huge: It only models the first wave and assumes only 3% will be infected. "Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June … an estimated 97% of the population will still be susceptible."