Categories
Gospel Women in Ministry

Together for the Gospel, The Gospel Coalition, and Matthew Bates and Scot McKnight

My comment on: https://twitter.com/MatthewWBates/status/1252291893293006849

As I teach evangelism, I see the disagreement as a big deal. If you think of the gospel as a transaction, then you will use any means (fear, deception, manipulation) to get people to pray the prayer. If you see the good news as about Jesus, you want people to know about him.

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1252325421221163008

Whispers: The real common ground among the Together for the Gospel and The Gospel Coalition people is being complementarian. 2012 from

 
Categories
Covid-19

Critique of IHME model predicting coronavirus spread in the USA will fall rapidly

Two threads: 

March 31 thread

First tweet: 

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1245007223715024896

Last tweet: 

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1245048281685606400

Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1245007223715024896.html

PDF of thread: 

Download Critique of IHME model March 31

 

Second thread: 

April 10 First tweet of thread:  

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1248631977667780609

 

April 17 Last tweet of thread: 

https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1251245875247996929

 

Full thread: 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1251245875247996929.html

 

PDF of thread: 

Download Critique of IHME modeling

 

This will be more jumbled below thread 1: 

This model predicts the maximum deaths per day.
Florida: 136 on May 3.
Minnesota: 49 on Apr 19.
South Carolina: 30 on Apr 26.
We'll see.
Context:

I agree with this Carl T. Bergstrom thread that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington model is too optimistic. It assumes social distancing is practiced and it is flawed by being based on fatalities so far.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington people are trying to get Florida's governor to order social distancing.

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

 

This will be more jumbled below thread 2: 

I have not seen any expert who thinks the IHME projection modeling is excellent. It is based on reported covid deaths and it is regularly redone to fit curves in other countries. It was just invented in March to help the state of WA. It is an estimate based on Wuhan and Italy.
But there is no other public updated national model. So, it is useful to give the public some idea since tens of thousands is hard to picture. But it fluctuates based on reported deaths. It does not take into account poor testing.
See threads below to learn more.
Huge: It only models the first wave and assumes only 3% will be infected. "Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June … an estimated 97% of the population will still be susceptible."

We see evidence that in hard-hit areas, 14% are affected in the first wave.

The point is that a huge number of people (97-86% of people) are still vulnerable to outbreaks after the first wave is slowed due to lock-downs.

Also the second wave begins not long after the first wave are supposedly stopped.

Other models:

GLEAM national model: gleamproject.org/covid-19#model April 11 peak time for deaths in the US.

LANL state model: covid-19.bsvgateway.org Cases will peak mid-April to mid-May.

CU Epi county medical capacity: columbia.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvie…

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.
Categories
Minneapolis Public Schools

Minneapolis Public Schools – Comprehensive District Redesign

Update:

See my most recent letter from May 5th but also read this one below from April 13th that gets at my motivation.

Minneapolis Public Schools: Please don’t pass the Comprehensive District Design. It will be disastrous for the district.

_____________________

April 13, 2020 post:

I’m worried about the Comprehensive District Design for Minneapolis Public Schools

Thursday Superintendent Graff sent out an email announcing the final plan.

Or, instead of reading my analysis, here is the latest March 27th Star Tribune article which summarizes the plan. It notes the same things I do.  https://m.startribune.com/minneapolis-public-schools-unveils-final-redistricting-proposal/569163152/

Foundational assumption: I want what is best for kids. I especially want to help kids who are not doing well and have been historically discriminated against. 

I think people who are for the plan want this too. I’m against the plan because I think it won’t work. 

From what I understand, the plan is likely to be passed by the school board.

Introduction:

I’m worried about the Minneapolis Public School’s Comprehensive District Design being bad for the city because it is going to make our southwest neighborhoods much more desirable in comparison to other areas of the city. I mean that sincerely even though I’m writing to southwest neighborhoods on Nextdoor. People will attend the community schools at Kenny and Armatage and Burroughs and Barton and Lake Harriet and Windom and Hale. Those schools will become even more desirable than they are now because they will have even better test scores in comparison to other parts of the city. Property values will really go up in southwest Minneapolis in comparison to other parts of the city. It will exacerbate economic and historic racial tensions. People in this area of the southwest will be very unlikely to attend magnet schools in other parts of the city. Minneapolis Public Schools projects all of the southwest schools will get whiter and wealthier: Burroughs, Barton, Windom, Armatage, Kenny, Anthony, Field, Justice Page, Southwest; and Lake Harriet Upper and Lower and Hale will largely stay the same, going up or down by less than 3%.

My analysis is below.

Andy

My latest on the Comprehensive District Design is below. I’ll share three sets of information that have now been presented by MPS. Then I will give my opinion.  

(1) 

First, it is good to look at which schools MPS says they are improving with the CDD. In summary, they plan to help 10 schools with above 86% of one race to slightly below 86% by offering new programming at those schools and closing programs elsewhere in the district to attract students to these options. There will still be 10 Racially Identifiable Schools with over 86% students of color, instead of 20.    

The most important thing to note is that a Racially Identifiable School in a Minneapolis Public School is that 86% of students of color is the line where a school becomes RIS. https://equity.mpls.k12.mn.us/uploads/racially_identifiable_school_2019-20.pdf

They write, “MPS (Minneapolis Public Schools) projects that CDD (Comprehensive District Design) implementation will result in eight racially identifiable schools (RIS), including one high school and two culturally specific sites, and seven high poverty schools in the district.” 

There will still be a projected 11 Racially Identifiable Schools (RIS), not 8. The source is https://www.cdd.mpls.k12.mn.us/school-info You have to slide the gray bar below over to the right until you get to the heading Projected RIS status and organize by that. Ordered by Projected Percent Students of Color. (This website and data was removed so here is the information downloaded in May 2020. CDD School By School Info – May 2020)