Two threads:
March 31 thread
First tweet:
https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1245007223715024896
Last tweet:
https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1245048281685606400
Full thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1245007223715024896.html
PDF of thread:
Download Critique of IHME model March 31
Second thread:
April 10 First tweet of thread:
https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1248631977667780609
April 17 Last tweet of thread:
https://twitter.com/AndyRowell/status/1251245875247996929
Full thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1251245875247996929.html
PDF of thread:
Download Critique of IHME modeling
This will be more jumbled below thread 1:
It assumes stay-at-home orders in every state in the next week.
You can look up each state:
Summary:
This will be more jumbled below thread 2:
See threads below to learn more.
The point is that a huge number of people (97-86% of people) are still vulnerable to outbreaks after the first wave is slowed due to lock-downs.
GLEAM national model: gleamproject.org/covid-19#model April 11 peak time for deaths in the US.
LANL state model: covid-19.bsvgateway.org Cases will peak mid-April to mid-May.
CU Epi county medical capacity: columbia.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappvie…