Andy Rowell

Author: Andy Rowell

  • The research behind my post at Out of Ur: Missional vs. Attractional: Debating the Research

    See the post I coauthored with the editors of Leadership Journal at the Out of Ur blog:

    Missional vs. Attractional: Debating the Research
    What do the numbers say? It depends who you ask.

    by Url Scaramanga & Andy Rowell

    Summary:

    In the comments of a recent post, Scot McKnight, David Fitch, Dan Kimball and Alan Hirsch argued about what the church stats say.  They called for evidence.  So in this post, I lay out some quantitative data that is relevant to the discussion.  (See my Following Dan Kimball's Missional vs. Megachurch conversation to get caught up on the chronology of the discussion).  The evidence I present is not decisive for "either side" but it sheds light on what we know and don't know.  My point is merely that we need to be careful about making broad claims about where the church is growing and declining.  I agree that we need to be reasonably informed about sociology but that our direction comes from theology. 

     

    Here are the footnotes that they edited out:

    Scott Thumma and Dave Travis, Beyond Megachurch Myths: What We Can Learn from America's Largest Churches (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2007), 124-125.

    Stanley Presser and Mark Chaves, "Is Religious Service Attendance Declining?" Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 46 (2007): 417.

    Rodney Stark, What Americans Really Believe (Waco: Baylor, 2008), 14.

    Scott Thumma and Dave Travis, Beyond Megachurch Myths: What We Can Learn from America's Largest Churches (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2007), 8-9.

    Notes about interpreting David Olson's The American Church in Crisis statistics:

    As I have noted before, David Olson's research is principally based on statistics from 20 or so denominations.  It tells us something but not necessarily about all churches in the U.S.

    The quote in the article from Olson was not suggested by me but by the Leadership Journal editors.  It is from the following piece:

    Rebecca Barnes and Lindy Lowry, "The American Church in Crisis", Outreach magazine, May/June 2006.

    The claims by Olson are also made in his book:

    David T. Olson, The American Church in Crisis: Groundbreaking Research Based on a National Database of over 200,000 Churches (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 2008).  

    Olson tallies together headcounts from denominations and based on that argues that the attendance number is fairly stable but the American population is growing.  First, I do not think his numbers adequately represent independent churches and smaller denominations.  Second, I know of no other researcher who depends on headcounts as Olson does with so little clarification about establishing a comprehensive methodology.  

    D. Michael Lindsay, assistant professor of sociology at Rice University, notes in response to Olson's research:

    "Counting heads to estimate weekly worship service attendance is far less reliable than estimates based on survey responses . . . For researchers to generalize head counts to the entire adult population, they must be conducted as an exhaustive consensus or a representative sample."

    D. Michael Lindsay, "Gallup's Research Remains More Reliable Than Counting Heads," Rev. Magazine (Mar/Apr 2008): 59.

    It should be said that I appreciate Olson's research for what it does tell us and I used it in my previous post "Megachurch Misinformation" at Out of Ur.  For example, one can look at the church planting statistics from 10 denominations.  These stats do not tell us about church planting in America comprehensively but give a nice snapshot. 

    Additional notes about young adults:

    I do not mean in the Out of Ur post to paint a rosy picture of American Christianity.  As Andy Crouch notes in the comments, there is no room for complacency.

    Robert Wuthnow points out that frequent church attendance among young adults is down from 31 percent in the 1970s to 25 percent more recently. 

    Wuthnow writes,

    Specifically, 6 percent of younger adults [age 21-45] in the recent period [1998, 2000, 2002 GSS] claim that they attend religious services more than once a week, compared with 7 percent in the earlier period [1972-1976], and 14 percent in the in the recent period claim they attend every week down from 19 percent previously.  At the other extreme, 20 percent say they never attend, compared with only 14 percent earlier.  How should we think about these changes?  On the one hand, it is important not to exaggerate their significance.  In many ways, younger adults at the start of the twenty-first century are like younger adults in the early 1970s.  If we count as 'regular' attenders, those who participate nearly every week or more often, only a quarter (25 percent) of younger adults can be considered regular attenders now, and fewer than a third (31 percent) were in the early 1970s.  The majority of younger adults either attend religious service rarely, or if they attend more than that, are hardly regular enough to be the core of any congregation.  On the other hand, the fact that regular attenders now characterize only 25 percent of younger adults, whereas this proportion was 31 percent in the 1970s represents a decline that cannot easily be dismissed.

    Robert Wuthnow, After the Baby Boomers: How Twenty- and Thirty-Somethings Are Shaping the Future of American Religion (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007), 52-53.

    Conclusion:

    I love all kinds of churches.  All need to be continually evaluated by good theology. 

    As I said in my earlier post Megachurch Misinformation, 

    All of us want "more and better disciples of Jesus" (a phrase I first
    heard from Brian McLaren). In the Church of England, they are talking
    about a "mixed economy" of "fresh expressions" of church being a good
    thing–in other words different churches will reach different people. I
    am hopeful about both missional and megachurch expressions of church.

    Related:

    See also my posts:

    Weekly U.S.A. Church Attendance: The Sociologists Weigh In

    and

    Following Dan Kimball's Missional vs. Megachurch conversation

    and my posts in the Sociology category. 

  • Superb practical tips about preaching: Communications professor Lori Carrell in Rev.

     

    I wanted to draw your attention to an outstanding series of articles by Lori Carrell, a professor of communication at the University of Wisconsin, who has done research in cooperation with the Center for Excellence in Congregational Leadership, which is owned and operated by Green Lake Conference Center/American Baptist Assembly in Wisconsin and has received funding from the Lilly Endowment.  Each article is three pages long from Rev. magazine and contains some of the best practical advice about preaching you can find anywhere.  Carrell has her Ph.D. in communication, is very familiar with how pastors think, is a Christian herself, and is a highly awarded professor.  I am impressed.  We need more of this kind of research on topics related to pastoring.    LoriCarrell

     

    Check out these PDFs online. (Links fixed Nov 8, 2019. BONUS DISCOVERY: All of Lori Carrell's articles on preaching are at the CECL (Center for Excellence in Congregational Leadership website!)

     

    Lori Carrell, "Sermons Most Likely to Succeed: Do sermons actually change beliefs and behavior? An ongoing study reveals hard facts," Rev. Magazine (May/June 2007), 71-73.

    Lori Carrell, "Sermons Most Likely to Succeed: Do sermons actually change beliefs and behavior? An ongoing study reveals hard facts," Rev. Magazine (May/June 2007), 71-73.

    This is the most dense article–sharing findings from an extensive survey of what is most effective in preaching. 

     

    Lori Carrell, “The Perils of PowerPoint Preaching: Research reveals that the use of PowerPoint slides during preaching is often more of a distraction than a transformative tool,” Rev. Magazine (Mar/Apr 2008): 91-93.

    Lori Carrell, “The Perils of PowerPoint Preaching: Research reveals that the use of PowerPoint slides during preaching is often more of a distraction than a transformative tool,” Rev. Magazine (Mar/Apr 2008): 91-93.

    This article argues finds that much PowerPoint use is distracting. 

     

    Lori Carrell,"Are You Wasting Your Sermon Prep Time?" Rev. Magazine (May/June 2008), 91-93.

    Lori Carrell,"Are You Wasting Your Sermon Prep Time?" Rev. Magazine (May/June 2008), 91-93.

    This article explains what pastors do in sermon prep time and follows pastors who have tried to improve their effectiveness in preparation.

     

    Lori Carrell,"Reaching the Choir: Are you transforming your listeners or simply telling them what they already know?," Rev. Magazine (July/August 2008), 95-97.

    Lori Carrell,"Reaching the Choir: Are you transforming your listeners or simply telling them what they already know?," Rev. Magazine (July/August 2008), 95-97.

     

    This article suggests a method for moving people from what they already know to specific challenges. 

     

     

    Lori Carrell,"Why Your Preaching Matters More Than You Think," Rev. Magazine (September/October 2008), 158-159.

     

    Lori Carrell,"Why Your Preaching Matters More Than You Think," Rev. Magazine (September/October 2008), 158-159.

     

    This article explains how greatly congregation members value preaching. 

     

    See also her book:

     

    Lori Carrell, The Great American Sermon Survey (Mainstay Church Resources, 1999).

    I give Rev. magazine credit for having regular columns from:

    • David Kinnaman, author of UnChristian and president of The Barna Group;
    • D. Michael Lindsay, assistant professor of sociology at Rice University, and a reputable sociologist.   

    Both move beyond the numbers to offer their take on what church leaders should do but they also both deal responsibly with statistics. 

  • Willow Creek REVEAL’s second book Follow Me tells us very little

    Bradley Wright, associate professor of sociology at the University of Connecticut, has now thoroughly and aptly reviewed Follow Me (September 2008), the second REVEAL book. (I too have read both books).  Follow Me is quite similar to the first REVEAL book (September 2007) but you will be interested to know Willow Creek itself is not included in the data this time–though you learned nothing about Willow Creek from REVEAL either since their data was mixed in with six other churches.

    See: Search for Follow Me at Bradley Wright's blog

    I love Willow Creek but I am sad that they are not using quantitative data better because it is no doubt confusing them and a lot of other people.
    The Reveal and Follow Me studies look for factors that are highly correlative in spiritual growth.  However, none of these "discoveries" are in fact at all surprising.

    I have summarized their conclusions below in my own words. 

    Here are their Reveal conclusions paraphrased by me:

    • People who report their commitment to God at high levels spend about as much time in church activities as those who report a medium level of commitment to God. 
    • Personal spiritual practices correlate with a Christ-centered life.
    • A church’s most active evangelists, volunteers and donors come from those who report a high level of commitment to God.
    • More than 25 percent of those surveyed described themselves as spiritually stalled or dissatisfied with the role of the church in their spiritual growth.

    Here are the Follow Me conclusions paraphrased by me:

    • They found that people who self-report being closer to Christ correlate with more knowledge of Christian beliefs, more practicing of Christian behaviors, and appreciating the Bible more. 

    If church leaders get access to the raw data and are able to interpret it in ways different from how it is explained in the Reveal and Follow Me books, that could indeed be very fruitful.

    For example, Follow Me has this intriguing line but no further explanation.  "In the 200 churches surveyed, this number [the number of those who are both satisfied and not stalled] ranged from a high of 84 percent to a low of 48 percent" (p. 101). Unfortunately, Follow Me does not tell us anything about those churches or even hint what might  be going on in them that produces the disparate scores. 

    Furthermore, they do not measure how many people are newly committing to Christ.  If a church scored 48% because some people were dissatisfied with all the new converts around, then that 48% might not be as bad a number.

    It seems to me the two books are designed to encourage churches to do the REVEAL study in their churches.  I think you can do better with other resources. 

    There are other consultants who do church self-assessment work:

    1. Allelon: Alan Roxburgh

    See his book about consulting: The Missional Leader: Equipping Your Church to Reach a Changing World (J-B Leadership Network Series) by Alan Roxburgh and Fred Romanuk (2006).  They offer the Mission-Shaped Leader Survey. This group located in Eagle, ID has a "missional" emphasis similar to Darrell Guder's The Missional Church.

    2. Church Innovations: Patrick Keifert

    Luther Seminary (St. Paul, Minn.) professor Keifert has a book out about consulting: We Are Here Now: A New Missional Era by Patrick Keifert (2007).  Partnership for Missional Church (PMC) is what they call their qualitative assessment process.  "Church FutureFinder is an on-line resource for congregational discovery." This group has a "missional" emphasis similar to Darrell Guder's The Missional Church and has particular strengths with Lutheran congregations.

    3. Easum Bandy & Associates: Bill Easum, Tom Bandy, Bill Tenny-Brittian and the EBA Associates.

    In 2000, Bill Easum and Tom Bandy, (see preceding links for their books), merged their consulting organizations: Easum's "21st Century Strategies" (founded in 1987) and Bandy's  "Thriving Church Consulting" (founded in 1995) to form EBA located in Port Aransas, TX.  See their Consultation Tools.  This group has more of a focus on church growth.

    4. Alban Institute: Alban Consultants

    Founded in 1974, located in greater Washington, DC, they have published many books on issues related to pastoral leadership.  They serve mostly mainline congregations.   

    See also this reputable book about doing church self-assessment:

    Studying Congregations: A New Handbook by Nancy Tatom Ammerman, Jackson W. Carroll, Carl S. Dudley, and William McKinney (1998)