Andy Rowell

Category: Leadership Journal’s Out of Ur blog

  • Free Churches and Liturgical Churches: Behind the Numbers

    My post is up at Christianity Today's Leadership Journal Out of Ur blog:

    Catalyst, Liturgy, and Innovation What liturgical church leaders and the Catalyst Conference can learn from each other.

    It has also been published in a slightly different form at Duke Divinity School's Faith & Leadership website on the Call & Response blog:

    What Liturgical and Free Church leaders can learn from each other.

    Make your comments there.  Thanks.  


    Free Churches and Liturgical Churches: Behind the Numbers

    The first two sentences in the post attempt to show that there is a significant split in the United States between liturgical churches and free churches. 

    According to data from the National Congregations Study (2006-2007), 38%
    of people in the United States associate themselves with     liturgical
    churches (Roman Catholic, Lutheran, Episcopal, etc.)    ; while 46%
    associate themselves with     free churches (Baptist, Pentecostal,
    non-denominational, etc.).     The 14% of people associated with Methodist
    and Reformed/Presbyterian churches     sit atop this watershed—some sliding
    down the liturgical slope, others down the free church slope.

    The data I draw from in these sentences is from the following chart.  I have marked the liturgical numbers yellow, free church numbers pink and Reformed/Methodist green.

    Explore the Data: Wave 2 – 2006/07


    Denomination
    Response Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent
    ROMAN CATHOLIC 421 27.9 27.9        
    BAPTIST 312 20.7 20.7 48.7
    METHODIST 136 9.1 9.1 57.7
    LUTHERAN 77 5.1 5.1 62.9
    PRESBYTERIAN OR REFORMED 68 4.5 4.5 67.3
    PENTECOSTAL 84 5.6 5.6 73.0
    OTHER MODERATE OR LIBERAL PROTESTANTS 26 1.7 1.7 74.6
    EPISCOPAL CHURCH 43 2.9 2.9 77.5
    OTHER CONSERVATIVE, EVANGELICAL, OR SECTARIAN PROTESTANTS 97 6.5 6.5 84.0
    OTHER CHRISTIAN, NOT OTHERWISE SPECIFIED 191 12.7 12.7 96.7
    NON-CHRISTIAN 50 3.3 3.3 100.0

    NOTE: this table reflects the number of persons in congregations.

    To get it:

    1. I went to the National Congregations home page.
    2. Clicked explore the data 
    3. Clicked on Basic Findings for each Variable in the Surveys: Wave 2: 2006-2007 data 
    4. Clicked under the Variables.  "Denomiation." 
    5. Clicked: "I want my tables to reflect the number of persons in congregations"
    6. Clicked: Create Frequency Table. 

    The same information is presented slightly differently on page 27 of The National Congregations Study report "American Congregations at the Beginning of the 21st Century" by Mark Chaves

    RELIGIOUS TRADITION:
    Percent with no denominational affiliation                         13.9   

        Percent associated with each denomination or tradition:
    Roman Catholic                                                                 27.9       
    Baptist conventions/denominations                                   20.7       
    Methodist denominations                                                    9.1         
    Lutheran/Episcopal denominations                                     7.9
    Pentecostal                                                                         5.6
    Denominations in the reformed tradition                             4.5
    Other Christian                                                                  20.9
    Jewish                                                                                  1.6
    Non-Christian and Non-Jewish                                             1.7

    I reflected on the Report at:

    Two new reports: Thumma / Bird on Megachurches and Chaves on American Congregations

    Duke sociologist Mark Chaves has written the 2004 Harvard University Press book:

    More raw unweighted data is available at:

    National Congregations Study, Cumulative Dataset (1998 and 2006-2007)

    From this type of data (if it was properly weighted), one would begin to form the chart above. 

    9) Denominational affiliation (collapsed 1) (DENCODE)
    TOTAL %
    0) No denomination 313 11.4
    1) Roman Catholic 663 24.2
    2) Southern Baptist Convention 285 10.4
    3) Black Baptist 91 3.3
    4) American Baptist Churches 26 0.9
    5) Other Baptist 120 4.4
    6) United Methodist Church 245 8.9
    7) Black Methodist 23 0.8
    8) Other Methodist 9 0.3
    9) Evangelical Lutheran Church in America 111 4.1
    10) Lutheran Church – Missouri Synod 52 1.9
    11) Other Lutheran 19 0.7
    12) Presbyterian Church (USA) 82 3.0
    13) Other Presbyterian 9 0.3
    14) Assembly of God 48 1.8
    15) Other Pentecostal 54 2.0
    16) Church of God in Christ 21 0.8
    17) Disciples of Christ 17 0.6
    18) Episcopal Church 77 2.8
    19) United Church of Christ 51 1.9
    20) Reformed Church in America 8 0.3
    21) Church of the Brethren 7 0.3
    22) Jehovah's Witness 28 1.0
    23) Mennonite 7 0.3
    24) Church of the Nazarene 20 0.7
    25) Seventh-day Adventists 15 0.5
    26) Unitarian Universalist Association 16 0.6
    27) Eastern Orthodox 13 0.5
    28) Church/Churches of Christ 16 0.6
    29) Various Church of God 26 0.9
    30) Latter-day Saints (LDS, Mormon) 45 1.6
    31) Jewish 45 1.6
    32) Non-Christian/non-Jewish 53 1.9
    35) Evangelical 13 0.5
    36) Christian and Missionary Alliance 13 0.5
    37) Other Mainline/Liberal 9 0.3
    38) Other Conservative/Evangelical 34 1.2
    39) Other Christian, nec 56 2.0
    TOTAL 2740 100.0
    [ Add to Question Bank | View Question Bank ]

  • The research behind my post at Out of Ur: Missional vs. Attractional: Debating the Research

    See the post I coauthored with the editors of Leadership Journal at the Out of Ur blog:

    Missional vs. Attractional: Debating the Research
    What do the numbers say? It depends who you ask.

    by Url Scaramanga & Andy Rowell

    Summary:

    In the comments of a recent post, Scot McKnight, David Fitch, Dan Kimball and Alan Hirsch argued about what the church stats say.  They called for evidence.  So in this post, I lay out some quantitative data that is relevant to the discussion.  (See my Following Dan Kimball's Missional vs. Megachurch conversation to get caught up on the chronology of the discussion).  The evidence I present is not decisive for "either side" but it sheds light on what we know and don't know.  My point is merely that we need to be careful about making broad claims about where the church is growing and declining.  I agree that we need to be reasonably informed about sociology but that our direction comes from theology. 

     

    Here are the footnotes that they edited out:

    Scott Thumma and Dave Travis, Beyond Megachurch Myths: What We Can Learn from America's Largest Churches (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2007), 124-125.

    Stanley Presser and Mark Chaves, "Is Religious Service Attendance Declining?" Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 46 (2007): 417.

    Rodney Stark, What Americans Really Believe (Waco: Baylor, 2008), 14.

    Scott Thumma and Dave Travis, Beyond Megachurch Myths: What We Can Learn from America's Largest Churches (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2007), 8-9.

    Notes about interpreting David Olson's The American Church in Crisis statistics:

    As I have noted before, David Olson's research is principally based on statistics from 20 or so denominations.  It tells us something but not necessarily about all churches in the U.S.

    The quote in the article from Olson was not suggested by me but by the Leadership Journal editors.  It is from the following piece:

    Rebecca Barnes and Lindy Lowry, "The American Church in Crisis", Outreach magazine, May/June 2006.

    The claims by Olson are also made in his book:

    David T. Olson, The American Church in Crisis: Groundbreaking Research Based on a National Database of over 200,000 Churches (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 2008).  

    Olson tallies together headcounts from denominations and based on that argues that the attendance number is fairly stable but the American population is growing.  First, I do not think his numbers adequately represent independent churches and smaller denominations.  Second, I know of no other researcher who depends on headcounts as Olson does with so little clarification about establishing a comprehensive methodology.  

    D. Michael Lindsay, assistant professor of sociology at Rice University, notes in response to Olson's research:

    "Counting heads to estimate weekly worship service attendance is far less reliable than estimates based on survey responses . . . For researchers to generalize head counts to the entire adult population, they must be conducted as an exhaustive consensus or a representative sample."

    D. Michael Lindsay, "Gallup's Research Remains More Reliable Than Counting Heads," Rev. Magazine (Mar/Apr 2008): 59.

    It should be said that I appreciate Olson's research for what it does tell us and I used it in my previous post "Megachurch Misinformation" at Out of Ur.  For example, one can look at the church planting statistics from 10 denominations.  These stats do not tell us about church planting in America comprehensively but give a nice snapshot. 

    Additional notes about young adults:

    I do not mean in the Out of Ur post to paint a rosy picture of American Christianity.  As Andy Crouch notes in the comments, there is no room for complacency.

    Robert Wuthnow points out that frequent church attendance among young adults is down from 31 percent in the 1970s to 25 percent more recently. 

    Wuthnow writes,

    Specifically, 6 percent of younger adults [age 21-45] in the recent period [1998, 2000, 2002 GSS] claim that they attend religious services more than once a week, compared with 7 percent in the earlier period [1972-1976], and 14 percent in the in the recent period claim they attend every week down from 19 percent previously.  At the other extreme, 20 percent say they never attend, compared with only 14 percent earlier.  How should we think about these changes?  On the one hand, it is important not to exaggerate their significance.  In many ways, younger adults at the start of the twenty-first century are like younger adults in the early 1970s.  If we count as 'regular' attenders, those who participate nearly every week or more often, only a quarter (25 percent) of younger adults can be considered regular attenders now, and fewer than a third (31 percent) were in the early 1970s.  The majority of younger adults either attend religious service rarely, or if they attend more than that, are hardly regular enough to be the core of any congregation.  On the other hand, the fact that regular attenders now characterize only 25 percent of younger adults, whereas this proportion was 31 percent in the 1970s represents a decline that cannot easily be dismissed.

    Robert Wuthnow, After the Baby Boomers: How Twenty- and Thirty-Somethings Are Shaping the Future of American Religion (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007), 52-53.

    Conclusion:

    I love all kinds of churches.  All need to be continually evaluated by good theology. 

    As I said in my earlier post Megachurch Misinformation, 

    All of us want "more and better disciples of Jesus" (a phrase I first
    heard from Brian McLaren). In the Church of England, they are talking
    about a "mixed economy" of "fresh expressions" of church being a good
    thing–in other words different churches will reach different people. I
    am hopeful about both missional and megachurch expressions of church.

    Related:

    See also my posts:

    Weekly U.S.A. Church Attendance: The Sociologists Weigh In

    and

    Following Dan Kimball's Missional vs. Megachurch conversation

    and my posts in the Sociology category. 

  • Following Dan Kimball’s Missional vs. Megachurch conversation

    Dan Kimball provoked a response with his post at Christianity Today's Leadership Journal blog.  Here is some of the response in chronological order.  You can put in the comments any posts I have missed but put "reaction" comments on one of the other blogs as I intend this post just to be an index.

    December 2, 2008

    Dan Kimball's Missional Misgivings

    Small, indigenous churches are getting lots of attention, but where's the fruit?

    Dan is a pastor and author of Emerging Church and They Like Jesus, But Not the Church

    Brother Maynard of Winnipeg, Manitoba responded to Dan's article at:

    Missional Misgivings, or Missional Misunderstandings?


    December 4, 2008

    Megachurch Misinformation

    Mega or missional? The stats say both are doing well.

    by Andy Rowell

    See also at my blog:

    The research behind my Out of Ur post: Megachurch Misinformation

    David Fitch, a pastor and professor at Northern Seminary, responded to Dan's original article at:

    THREE QUESTIONS FOR THE ATTRACTIONAL PRACTICIONERS WHO QUESTION THE FRUIT OF MISSIONAL: A Response to Dan Kimball

    Erika Haub, a Fuller Seminary grad and lives in LA, also responded:

    “The church that came to me”

    Julie Clawson, a Wheaton College grad and coordinator of the Emerging Women blog, also responded

    Missional Effectiveness

    Dan Kimball responded in the comments of the original article:

    Comments 31 and 34

    and Dan wrote the same comment and clarification at Brother Maynard and David Fitch's blog.


    December 5, 2008

    Tim Keller, pastor Church of the Redeemer in NYC with 4017 attendance according to the Hartford megachurch database and author of the #1 bestselling apologetics book at Amazon.com The Reason for God, then also commented at David Fitch's blog. 

    Jonny Baker over in London, UK also noted the exchange.

    when did christianity become a popularity contest?

    a rant from julie clawson on missional effectiveness

    The Out of Ur posted a video and noted that its most recent issue issue of Leadership Journal Fall 2008 was all about the missional conversation. 

    Defining "Missional"

    Michael Frost clarifies and increasingly unclear word.

    Scot McKnight, professor at North Park puts in his take at his blog:

    Weekly Meanderings

    Len Hjalmarson – NextReformation notes the the discussion.

    Missional vs Mega.. again

    Brother Maynard responded again:

    The Missional/Attractional Divide: Dan Kimball Unpolarized


    December 6, 2008

    I posted 60 Theologians on an Ecclesiological Spectrum


    December 8, 2008

    David Fitch and Tim Keller posted additional comments at Fitch's blog. 

    Out of Ur posted: Tim Keller Weighs in on Missional Debate

    Fitch posted a new post: The Attractional/Missional Debate Won't Stop: Three Take-Aways

    Bill Kinnon: Keller on Fitch on Kimball on Missional Growth?

    Meanwhile, Len Hjalmarson reviewed ReJesus by Alan Hirsch and Michael Frost.  Hirsch responded in the comments a dialogue commenced. 

    Jamie Arpin-Ricci: Interview With Michael Frost about ReJesus: A Wild Messiah for a Missional Church

    December 11

    Alan Hirsch Responds to Kimball's "Missional Misgivings"

    David Fitch, Scot McKnight, Alan Hirsch and Dan Kimball all left comments

    December 12

    Defining Missional
    The word is everywhere, but where did it come from and what does it really mean?
    Alan Hirsch | posted 12/12/2008

    From the fall issue of Leadership Journal

    Brian Russell

    and Jonny Baker

    note the article.

    Andrew Jones adds his comments at:

    Missional and Alan Hirsch

    Neil Cole series with lots of comments by Dan Kimball

    Misguided
    Misgivings 1: A Response to Dan Kimball’s Editorial comments

    Misguided
    Misgivings 2: The Walmart Effect

    Misguided
    Misgivings 3: Bigger isn’t Better

    Misguided
    Misgivings 4: Do the math

    Misguided
    Misgivings 5: A cost too high

    Misguided
    Misgivings 6: Here is some fruit…

    December 16

    Out of Ur: Missional vs. Attractional: Debating the Research – a post by Andy Rowell and the editors of Leadership Journal

    See also my post:

    The research behind my post at Out of Ur: Missional vs. Attractional: Debating the Research

    Here I clarify some of the research that gets discussed in the Out of Ur post.  

    December 17

    Brad Brisco at the Missional Church Network

    Lesslie Newbigin and the GOCN

    — how Darrell Guder and Lesslie Newbigin differ.