Concern about coronavirus March 9, 2020

Specht is doing a lot of calculations here but I think it is a useful estimate, which fits with other guesses, that hospitals will become overwhelmed around May 8th. That helps me to think about whether to cancel non-essential travel and conferences in the next couple of months.

Descriptions of the situation:

and

It is doubling approximately every 4-10 days.

Doubling time every 7-10 days.

"We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days."

"doubled every 4 days."

New York Times today: "Over the weekend, more than 230 cases were added, and on Monday, the national total approached 600."

Princeton:

Stanford:

Harvard:

Spread to new states on Friday:

Yes, the contagiousness and lethality are scary:

But my Facebook feed has people saying not to panic by buying too much stuff.

I don't think that takes away from the need to cancel non-essential travel and gatherings. 

If Specht is right that there will be 4 million cases around May 11,

and the overall case-fatality rate (CFR) continues to be 2.3% (

), that would be mean 92,000 of that 4 million would die. 

"the estimated mean R0 ["basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought)] for COVID-19 is around 3.28, with a median of 2.79 and IQR of 1.16."

Influenza is about 1.53.

or 1.71

Here is someone who is skeptical about the continued exponential growth of the disease.

https://twitter.com/drg1985/status/1236653062225367041

In other words, once lots of people get the disease, people will change their behavior and reduce the rate of transmission. 

Indeed, it will not spread as quickly if people practice "social distancing."
"the aim of public-health policy, whether at the city, national or global scale, is to flatten the curve, spreading the infections out over time."

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1237084608635830277?s=19

What happens when the hospital is overwhelmed:

And another description of what it is like to have hospitals overwhelmed with COVID-19:

Harvard expert: If a city in the US had a similar spread as Wuhan, it would overtake the amount of ICU beds in 45-60 days from the first case. But strict social distancing in Guangzho slowed the spread so it peaked at 19 days.

CNN poll yesterday: "57%, say they are very (18%) or somewhat (39%) confident that the government can prevent a nationwide epidemic of the virus."

South Korea and China have:

But Americans are less likely to do social distancing.